Escalating Tensions Between Algeria and Mali: Risks of Military Confrontation and Regional Instability

In a recent report, the International Crisis Group warned of escalating tensions between Algeria and Mali following the incident involving the downing of a drone, stating that the current crisis could evolve into an open military confrontation due to the lack of security coordination and the growing regional divisions.

The report indicates that Algeria missed a strategic opportunity to strengthen its influence in the Sahel region after France withdrew from Operation Barkhane in November 2022. While it was expected that Algeria would fill the security vacuum, Mali opted for a closer alliance with Russia and the countries of the AES group, which reduced Algeria’s role as a key security partner in the region.

The report further highlights Algeria’s growing concerns about refugee flows, as well as the increasing roles of countries such as Turkey, Iran, and Morocco, especially after the striking security rapprochement between Rabat and Bamako, culminating in the first meeting of the joint military commission between the two countries in February 2025.

The report warns that continued escalation, particularly with the use of drones by Malian forces against armed groups in the north, could lead to mistaken strikes or border violations, endangering both civilians and soldiers. It also recalls the July 2024 incident where airstrikes attributed to the Malian army killed several civilians, including Nigerian, Chadian, and Sudanese miners.

The report also points out that the deterioration of relations between Algeria and Mali diminishes the chances of a political solution in northern Mali, especially with Mali’s withdrawal from the Algeria-mediated peace agreement, which could push some Tuareg factions to radicalize or ally with jihadist groups.

The International Crisis Group views this crisis as part of a broader, fragmented regional landscape, exacerbated by the exit of AES countries from ECOWAS and the rising tensions between Morocco and Algeria. The report notes that this situation could be exploited by extremist groups operating in security vacuums and taking advantage of the lack of coordination between African capitals.

Regarding ways to reduce tensions, the report emphasizes the importance of returning to diplomacy, with mutual recognition of security interests, avoiding a logic of imposition or denial. It also suggests strengthening African mediation, proposing that the Chairperson of the African Union appoint a high-level mediator, such as former Ghanaian President John Mahama, or involve South Africa due to its diplomatic weight. The report also mentions the possibility of revitalizing the Algeria-Mali joint commission, established in 2005, as a platform for sharing security information and coordinating efforts in counterterrorism and border management, calling for the support of influential international powers like Russia to prevent the region from slipping further into chaos.