What Lies Behind the Chaos in Algerian Diplomacy?

Over the past two months, the Algerian regime led by the duo Abdelmadjid Tebboune and Saïd Chengriha — the President of the Republic and the Chief of Staff respectively — has laid the groundwork for a radical shift in its strategic and geopolitical objectives on the international stage, and consequently, in the key state instrument used to achieve them: diplomacy.

Throughout its tumultuous history, both internally and externally since gaining independence in 1962 after seven years of guerrilla warfare against the French colonial army, Algeria has frequently changed its analysis and approach to major international political issues, as well as its relations with the global powers dominating the world stage.

Relations between Algeria and France, in particular, but also with the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, China, and the European Union, have seen ups and downs, periods of closeness and rupture, open hands and harsh condemnations. Algiers always justified this as a means of defending its national interests, principles, and revolutionary and liberationist philosophy — which, if true, is a legitimate stance.

There has only been one issue on which Algeria has remained consistent throughout these six long decades: Palestine — and consequently, Israel. All Algerian presidents, from Ahmed Ben Bella to Abdelmadjid Tebboune, including Houari Boumediene, Chadli Bendjedid, Mohamed Boudiaf, Ali Haroun, Liamine Zeroual, and Abdelaziz Bouteflika, have proclaimed their unconditional support for the Palestinian people and their uncompromising condemnation of the “Zionist entity” that has usurped Palestinian land. Algeria has never recognized the existence of a state called Israel, even though it is officially recognized by the UN.

For the leaders of independent Algeria, the occupying and usurping enemy of Palestine was an “entity” — a group of Zionists allied and supported by “Western imperialism” — that had to be fought with weapons. Relations with Paris, Washington, Moscow, Beijing, Brussels, or London could be adjusted; with Israel, never.

Against all odds, in early February 2025, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune gave an interview to the French newspaper L’Opinion, owned by billionaires Arnault, Bettencourt, and Murdoch. In it, he delivered this fateful phrase, summarized as follows: If Israel recognizes the State of Palestine, Algeria will recognize the State of Israel. There was no more talk of the Rejection Front, of Palestinian armed struggle, or of unyielding condemnation of the Zionist entity. Tebboune hinted that Algeria would implicitly accept the objectives supported by Shimon Peres and his rival Yitzhak Rabin, who signed the Oslo Accords with Yasser Arafat’s PLO, thereby opening the path to recognizing a future Palestinian state.

Why has the Tebboune-Chengriha regime changed its “principles” on the Palestinian issue? What does Algiers expect to gain from this political and diplomatic earthquake?

The regime’s goal is to present itself as a “reliable ally” in the eyes of Donald Trump’s United States. Gaining the support, tolerance, or green light from the U.S. is seen by this regime as the key to its survival.

Analysts and strategists advising Algeria’s ruling elite have convinced it that the only real danger to the system could come from Washington.

The shadow power structure in Algiers has managed to overcome all internal crises — clan wars, political turmoil triggered by the death (or even assassination) of its leaders; the economic and financial impact of global crises; and even the massive mobilization of millions of Algerians in what was known as the Hirak, which lasted more than two years, from February 2019 to May 2021.

The deep state has survived all of these crises by manipulating, repressing, or using them to carry out internal purges. Algeria holds the world record for the number of jailed dissidents, journalists, and democracy activists relative to its population — as well as the most former prime ministers, ministers, senior officials, businessmen, and generals imprisoned.

The only fear of the Tebboune/Chengriha regime is that the United States might decide to dismantle the system by supporting a “color revolution,” as happened in the former Yugoslavia, Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, or during the “Arab Spring” which brought down the regimes of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, and more recently threatened Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

This is why the Tebboune/Chengriha duo is rushing to offer Donald Trump rare earth minerals — whose existence in Algeria has never actually been verified — promising to purchase weapons, allowing exploitation of the country’s resources, opening doors to multinational agribusiness, and perhaps even establishing a secret military intelligence base in the depths of the Algerian desert to monitor the Sahel, or letting U.S. or NATO fleets use its ports for docking, repair, and maintenance.

Algiers has noticed how Morocco’s offer to support the Abraham Accords benefited it by securing U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara and reinforcing its strategic military alliance with Washington. Algeria wants to do the same. By offering to recognize Israel under certain conditions and opening itself to a military alliance with the United States, the Tebboune/Chengriha regime hopes to obtain the international support it desperately needs — especially during a period of deteriorating relations with France, the European Union, Spain, and its Maghreb neighbors.

History repeats itself.

Just over ten years ago, as Abdelaziz Bouteflika prepared for a fourth term despite being ill and in a wheelchair, Algiers attempted a charm offensive toward the United States. In 2013, in the wake of the Arab Spring, the U.S. sought to deepen its involvement in the Mediterranean and North African region as a pillar in the fight against terrorism. At the time, President Barack Obama was working to redraw the map of the Arab world.

One month after being re-elected for a fourth term, Bouteflika managed to establish a “privileged partnership” with the United States, which included participating in joint military and naval exercises. However, his close ties with Russia and China prevented him from accepting the Pentagon’s proposal to establish a military intelligence base in the Tamanrasset region. Two years later, Donald Trump won the presidency, and Algeria once again sought to cozy up to Washington. The presence of a NATO flotilla in Algiers just weeks earlier made headlines in Algerian and international media alike.

But in his dealings with both Obama and Trump, Bouteflika was constrained by the military establishment on the Palestinian issue. The leadership’s desire for legitimacy rested largely on the Palestinian cause — a “principled matter” for the regime. The White House, for its part, made recognition of Israel a condition, as had been done by Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1993. At that time, Algeria could not accept this demand.

But in 2025, faced with international isolation, a crisis with France and Spain, and fragile ties with Russia and China, the Algerian leadership is now opening the door to a drastic change: recognizing Israel under certain conditions. A matter of survival.

Pedro Canales.