US Elections Stir Europe’s Anxiety: NATO’s Fate and the Continent’s Security in the Balance
Most European countries are experiencing a state of anxiety and anticipation as they await the results of the upcoming US presidential elections in November. Observers and policymakers agree that the outcomes of these elections will have significant implications for the European continent. If former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is re-elected, it could mean a return to the “America First” policy and a reduction in US commitment to NATO, at a time when Europe is facing its most severe conflict on its soil since World War II, due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and repeated Russian threats.
On the other hand, if Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, wins, it might lead to changes in US policy, with a potential shift in Washington’s focus away from Europe towards other regions, such as Asia and the Pacific.
To understand how the US presidential elections might impact Europe, the Council on Foreign Relations conducted interviews with four experts. Laura von Daniels, Head of the Americas Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, stated that Europe hopes for a Harris victory, noting that the upcoming US elections represent a crucial turning point in transatlantic relations due to concerns over Trump’s possible return to power.
Daniels identifies three main reasons for European concern. First, there is worry about the continued erosion of democratic values in the US, which might be difficult to reverse if Trump wins, with concerns extending to the impact on the international system. Second, there is anxiety about European security, as the US remains a crucial support for NATO and Ukraine; without US commitment, NATO might lack the political leadership and military capabilities needed to defend Europe. The third concern is economic, as Europeans fear that Trump’s victory could lead to the reimposition of tariffs and economic pressure on US allies, including the EU.
Conversely, Daniels believes that a Harris win would alleviate some of Europe’s concerns, given her commitment to continuing support for NATO and Ukraine and enhancing international cooperation. However, she cautioned that Harris might set high expectations for the EU regarding increased military spending and support for Ukraine, along with a potential preference for economic cooperation with China, which could affect Europe’s efforts to address Beijing’s policies.
Stephen Blockmans, Senior Researcher at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, explained that “a weakened Europe is awaiting a new American leader,” pointing out that Europe’s long-standing reliance on the US for security due to weak military spending makes it in urgent need of a new American leader. Therefore, electing a new US president will have a significant impact on Europe’s security future.
Blockmans noted that the US president’s stance on NATO will be critical for the alliance’s cohesion and effectiveness, with a Harris victory likely to strengthen European security assurances, while a Trump win might raise doubts about NATO’s future and embolden adversarial states, potentially weakening Europe’s security structure.
Patricia Sassnel, Head of Research at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, believes that the US presidential elections will be a major turning point for Europe, regardless of the outcome. She stated that a Trump victory might allow Putin greater freedom to act in Ukraine and possibly reach a swift agreement to end the war without consulting the Ukrainians, leaving Europe to face the Russian threat alone and jeopardizing the global order.
Conversely, Sassnel views Harris as offering a different agenda that supports Ukraine and counters Russia’s aggressive policies, but she noted that Harris could represent a new generation of American politicians focusing more on Asia and the Pacific, which could impact cooperation with Europe.
Finally, Leslie Vinjamuri, Director of the US and the Americas Program at Chatham House, said that Europe’s security future is heavily dependent on the election results, pointing out that Europe has relied on US foreign policy decisions for decades. With Trump’s rise in 2016, Europe began to experience deep concerns about the future of these relationships, making the upcoming election unprecedentedly significant for the continent.
In conclusion, all four experts agree that the US presidential elections will place Europe at a crucial crossroads, and that US-European relations, whatever the outcome, will not return to their previous state.
