Trump 2.0 and the Future of Relations with Morocco

Donald Trump began his second term on January 20, 2025, which presents a unique opportunity for his administration, dubbed “Trump 2.0,” to address the long-standing conflict over Western Sahara. His previous administration recognized Morocco’s claim over the territory, thereby strengthening relations between the United States and Morocco. With Trump’s return to office, there could be renewed interest in diplomatic efforts concerning this issue, highlighting Morocco’s strategic importance.
For France and Europe, Morocco has become a country of significant strategic importance due to its Atlantic initiative for the Sahel and other African countries. In this context, Christophe Boutin writes:
‘’This geopolitical dimension of Morocco must be fully understood by France, a logical partner for such projects. On the one hand, because our country’s own Atlantic coastline makes it obvious that there are common elements like fishing, tourism, renewable energy, and combating the effects of climate change on coastal areas, all of which require exchanges and collaborations. On the other hand, the cooperation forums established by Morocco interest our country doubly, for itself and as a member of the European Union in the relevant fields, and it is therefore essential to make our voice heard there. Finally, the security dimension, whose repercussions are so significant, must not be left to the deleterious actions of actors aiming to destabilize us.’’

Trump, Morocco, and Spain
Spanish media express growing concern as President Trump’s administration seems to prioritize Morocco over Spain in its early diplomatic engagements of his new term.
This shift reflects similar patterns from Trump’s first presidency, underscoring what Spanish newspapers describe as a decisive change in the U.S.’s regional priorities. El Mundo reports that neither Trump nor his representatives contacted their Spanish counterparts in the week following his inauguration, while engaging with many European countries and Morocco:
‘’The best example of this lack of harmony is that, as during his first term, a week passed without him or his ministers having talks with their Spanish counterparts. This is especially noteworthy given that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is of Cuban origin, speaks the same language and is much more concerned with balance than the president himself, especially regarding Venezuela. Rubio spoke with Edmundo González, who sought refuge in our country to avoid arrest.
In recent days, Rubio spoke with the foreign ministers of the Baltic states and Poland, as well as those from Hungary and Italy, ideological allies of Trumpism. That same week, he also spoke with those of France and Germany. But no interest was shown in the Iberian Peninsula, yet there was attention to Rabat, which should be concerning given how good relations with Mohamed VI in the past led to decisive turns, such as in the case of Western Sahara.
On the day of his inauguration, January 20, Trump criticized Spain from the Oval Office for its “very low” investment in security. He then made what appeared to be a mistake, stating that Spain was one of the BRICS members (which it is not) and mentioning potential tariffs up to 100% for BRICS members, as he believes that Russia, China, Brazil, and others are conspiring to harm the dollar. But his issues with the Pedro Sánchez government go back to the very first day.’’
Spanish media lament that Trump is prioritizing Morocco over Spain in his first week.
Recent developments have seen Spain increasingly concerned about its potential sidelining by the Trump administration, particularly regarding agreements involving Morocco and Spain, such as those concerning Gibraltar. In contrast, Morocco seems optimistic about strengthening bilateral relations with the United States following Trump’s inauguration, signaling opportunities for deeper cooperation.

U.S. Consulate in Dakhla
Trump’s return to power presents a new opportunity for Morocco to solidify its position in favor of a definitive solution to the Western Sahara conflict. The Moroccan government hopes that U.S. support will help consolidate its diplomatic gains amidst tensions with Algeria, which supports the Polisario Front.
While the administration of former President Joe Biden did not act on the previous Trump administration’s decision to open a U.S. consulate in Dakhla, Deputy Secretary of State for Middle Eastern Affairs Joy Hood, during her visit to Morocco and meeting with Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita, declared that “the U.S. recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara remains unchanged.”
The U.S. recognition of Morocco’s position on the Sahara by President Trump was a very significant event and a milestone in the history of relations between the two countries, which are currently seeking to strengthen their economic partnerships.
Indeed, economic factors play a crucial role in the swift opening of a U.S. consulate in the southern territories, as a means to make American diplomacy and policy on the issue more effective.
In this regard, the new U.S. president has promised $3 billion for investment projects in Morocco, alongside the planned inauguration of an American consulate in Dakhla, which would strengthen the relationship not only with Morocco but also with the entire African continent, capitalizing on all that King Mohammed VI’s Atlantic facade initiative has to offer.
Alongside this military cooperation, the two countries intend to boost bilateral trade and U.S. investments in Morocco, particularly in strategic sectors such as renewable energy and industry. In this regard, Morocco serves as the gateway to the continent for businesses, and with the new investment charter and the royal “Atlantic Façade” initiative, it seeks to attract significant American investments.
Given the intensifying international competition in Africa, the Trump administration can count on Morocco as a strategic partner and an African leader in various sectors to curb the influence of China and Russia on the continent. Morocco’s geographical location and its close ties with African countries allow it to play a key role in this regard, thus strengthening its position as a regional partner of the United States.
In terms of economy and development, Morocco is committed to strengthening its alliances with the U.S. through various economic and trade agreements, such as the free trade agreement that entered into force in 2006. Additionally, cooperation in education and cultural exchanges between the two countries has grown significantly in recent years.
For Rama Yade, writing in the Atlantic Council, Morocco has become an indispensable country for the U.S.:
‘’There is no doubt that, regardless of Trump’s strategy in the Middle East, Morocco will play a central role. But under King Mohammed VI’s reign, the kingdom has set a future role far beyond the Middle East.
To the south, Morocco, which rejoined the African Union in 2017, continues to deepen its African footprint. France, recognizing Morocco’s role across the continent, has considered how it could leverage Morocco to regain ground lost in Africa, particularly in the Sahel; Washington could follow suit. In November 2023, Mohammed VI announced a new initiative to “enable Sahel countries [Mali, Niger, Chad, and Burkina Faso] to access the Atlantic Ocean” through large-scale development projects.
This plan includes an ambitious Atlantic component, which will undoubtedly require coordination with the U.S. This could be done through the Atlantic Cooperation Partnership, launched in September 2023, which includes several African countries, including Morocco and Sahel nations like Senegal and Nigeria. There are other initiatives and challenges where the U.S. and Morocco can collaborate, including the fight against drug trafficking that flows from South America and crosses the Sahel – increasingly linked to terrorist movements that have sowed chaos in the Sahel for the past twenty years. The way the Trump administration handles these Atlantic projects will shape the direction of U.S.-Morocco relations due to Rabat’s central role in these initiatives.’’

Trump 2.0 and the Moroccan Sahara
As happened during his first presidential term, Trump’s return to the White House could have an impact on the latent conflict between Morocco and the Polisario Front in Western Sahara, dating back to 1975. Since the ceasefire ended in 2020, tensions have risen in the region, but a negotiated agreement under the UN’s auspices remains possible. However, the U.S. and the European Union would need to apply effective pressure to encourage both Morocco and the Polisario to make compromises.
Trump already gave Morocco a major victory during his first term by recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in December 2020. This decision unlocked the subsequent normalization of relations between the North African kingdom and Israel. It also paved the way for other diplomatic gains for Morocco, including from French President Emmanuel Macron, who declared that the “present and future” of Western Sahara belong to Moroccan sovereignty. The French president also encouraged French investment in the territory, following Spain’s example, which also stimulated investment in the region as part of its efforts to improve ties with Morocco.

International Support for Morocco’s Autonomy Proposal
Morocco is gaining increasing support for its autonomy proposal for Western Sahara, presented in 2007. The proposal involves the creation of a Sahrawi Autonomous Region (RAS) under Moroccan sovereignty. While the RAS would have the power to create its own laws and regulate domestic matters such as infrastructure and social policies, Rabat would retain control over the region’s natural resources, foreign relations, currency, and internal and external security. The Moroccan government continues to insist that its autonomy plan is the only solution it will accept for Western Sahara. It is now hoping to receive final international approval at a conference in April in the United Arab Emirates.

Tensions Regarding the Autonomy Proposal
So far, Morocco has rejected calls to expand its 2007 proposal before negotiations resume. The UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, stated in October 2024 that countries have the right to understand the implications of the autonomy plan, including guarantees for the protection of Sahrawi rights. The future of the UN’s peacekeeping mission in Western Sahara (MINURSO) is uncertain, and the diplomatic window for an agreement may soon close, benefiting Morocco and limiting the Polisario’s options.

Morocco’s Expectations from the United States
Moroccan officials hope that under President Trump’s second term, the ambiguous policy towards their country under the Biden administration will end. The Biden administration has tried to balance the historical ties with Morocco and regional security interests while managing relations with Algeria, which opposes Morocco’s claim to Western Sahara. Biden opted for a virtual consulate instead of fully recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara, a decision contrary to Trump’s in 2020.
The current US approach, which seems to distance Morocco, risks prolonging the conflict and giving Iran more influence in the region. Morocco hopes for realignment of its allies, such as France, Spain, and Israel, to support its position. The country advocates for strengthening regional security and supporting economic initiatives, such as the Dakhla port megaproject.

Morocco and the Strategic Alliance with the United States
King Mohammed VI congratulated Donald Trump upon his election, emphasizing the US recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara. This strategic relationship is considered a “driving force for peace, security, and prosperity in the Middle East and Africa.” Morocco also hopes for the opening of a US consulate in Dakhla, which would solidify the country’s international position on the Sahara issue.
During his first term, Trump avoided high-level visits to Algeria, and it is likely that under his second term, Morocco will receive more support, with prospects for cooperative projects, including the Nigeria-Europe pipeline via Morocco and other African initiatives.

Historical Links and Cooperation Between Morocco and the United States
Morocco was the first country to recognize the independence of the United States in 1777, establishing a friendship treaty that is still in force today. This cooperation continued throughout the centuries, with mutual support in trade and military matters. In 2020, the Trump administration officially recognized the Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara, a gesture that Morocco expects to be consolidated under Trump’s second term.