Seen from Spain: The arms race intensifies in Algeria and Morocco
Conflict in the Maghreb region is intensifying, with the clearest indicator being the increase in military spending by Algeria and Morocco, warns El Confidencial. Both countries, engaged in a latent rivalry exacerbated by the issue of Western Sahara and the war in Gaza, have entered into an unprecedented arms race.
Spain’s GDP (€1,513 billion in 2024) is seven times larger than Algeria’s (€214 billion in 2024). Nevertheless, its Maghreb neighbor plans to allocate €23.05 billion to defense in 2025, a 10% increase compared to 2024. The Spanish government has not yet voted on next year’s budget, but it is anticipated to invest around €22.22 billion in its armed forces, 3.5% less than Algeria.
Similarly, Spain’s GDP is eleven times larger than Morocco’s (€134 billion in 2024), yet its southern neighbor has adopted a defense budget of €12.383 billion for 2025. This represents an €825 million increase over 2024, amounting to a 9% rise in one year, according to its finance minister Nadia Fettah Alaoui. This also accounts for more than half (56%) of what Spain spends on defense.
A Colossal Double Effort
These figures illustrate the colossal defense efforts made by the two “heavyweights” of the Maghreb. Morocco allocates 10% of its GDP to its military, while Algeria devotes even more. Since the beginning of the century, Algeria’s defense spending has multiplied ninefold. In absolute terms, it is the highest defense spender in Africa and also has the largest budget deficit (21.8% of GDP in 2025, compared to around 3.5% for Morocco).
On paper, Spain’s Ministry of Defense budget is only €16 billion, but additional expenditures supplement its military arsenal, such as €6 billion from the Ministry of Industry. In total, this accounts for 1.28% of Spain’s GDP, despite the government of Pedro Sánchez committing to NATO to increase it to 2% of GDP by 2029 – an almost unattainable goal.
The arms race between Morocco and Algeria began about 20 years ago but took a significant turn on December 10, 2020. On this date, Morocco established diplomatic relations with Israel and deepened their military and security cooperation, which had existed previously but remained discreet. Since then, Algeria has doubled its efforts to compete with its neighbor.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Israel supplied 11% of the weapons purchased by Morocco in 2023. Just a few years after normalizing relations with Morocco, Israel has already become its third-largest arms supplier, after the United States and France.
Maghreb: A High-Risk Zone
In 2023, Morocco announced military equipment purchases worth €4.78 billion, although SIPRI notes that these acquisitions are spread over several years. Unofficial Moroccan military forums emphasize that while Algeria purchases arms without much consideration, Morocco prioritizes quality over quantity and maintenance of its existing equipment. Moreover, Morocco’s Royal Armed Forces have been engaged in a low-intensity war against the Polisario Front in Western Sahara for four years.
Last year, Algeria spent approximately €17 billion. Russia remains its primary supplier, but since the invasion of Ukraine, Algeria has sought to diversify its partners, approaching countries like China and Turkey.
In Algiers, authorities claim that this effort is not solely due to rivalry with Morocco but also addresses other security challenges, such as the situation in the Sahel and especially in Libya, where General Haftar’s troops, whose regime is not internationally recognized, have dangerously approached the Algerian border.
Is Conflict Still Avoidable?
The continuous deterioration of relations between Algiers and Rabat, which have severed all diplomatic ties, worries France. In her book The Black Scenarios of the French Army, journalist Alexandra Saviana reviews the eleven cases of greatest concern to French military, diplomats, and analysts. The first, in chronological order, is the possibility of a war in the Maghreb between Algeria and Morocco.
Xavier Driencourt, France’s ambassador to Algeria for nearly eight years, states in the book that “the deterioration of relations between these two countries is such […] that no possibility can be ruled out.” He adds, “Furthermore, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict reshuffles the cards in the region: it unites Algerians around a unifying theme while weakening Morocco due to its ties with Israel.”
Since the invasion of Gaza, demonstrations in support of Palestinians have been constant and massive in Moroccan cities, with crowds calling for severing relations with Israel.
Ignacio Cembrero – El Confidencial
