Four Key Players: Algeria, Morocco, France, and Spain

The ongoing global geopolitical instability is having a direct impact on the Western Mediterranean, where four historical players—Algeria, Morocco, France, and Spain—are reassessing their strategies and alliances.

Algeria has recently proposed a partnership with the United States for the joint exploitation of its mineral resources. While American companies like Exxon and Chevron already control much of Algeria’s hydrocarbon sector, the real point of interest lies in so-called “strategic minerals” or “rare earth elements.” However, the actual presence of these resources in Algeria remains uncertain.

Three Key Developments to Watch:

1. U.S. Interest in Rare Earth Elements
   Washington is actively working to reduce its reliance on China for these critical minerals. While Ukraine possesses notable reserves, the richest deposits in Africa are found in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Namibia, with smaller quantities in Mali, the Canary Islands, and potentially Algeria. Given this landscape, Algeria’s offer appears more like an attempt to attract American interest rather than a concrete opportunity.

2. Algeria’s Shift in Military Partnerships
   Algeria has expressed its intent to diversify its defense suppliers, signaling a move away from its historic dependence on Russian and Chinese weaponry. This opens the door for potential arms deals with the U.S., along with expanded cooperation in security and intelligence—areas where some collaboration already exists but could be significantly strengthened.

3. Algeria’s Changing Stance on Israel
   In a surprising shift, Algeria has hinted that it may recognize Israel—on the condition that a Palestinian state is established. This move aligns Algeria with Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, marking a significant departure from its traditionally firm position on the Palestinian issue.

Meanwhile, Morocco has maintained a more consistent diplomatic approach. Its strategic alliance with the United States has remained unshaken, even during periods of mistrust—such as when King Hassan II suspected Washington’s involvement in assassination attempts led by top Moroccan officers, including Oufkir, Dlimi, Medbouh, and Amekrane. Rather than distancing itself, Morocco’s ties with the U.S. strengthened over time. In fact, American intelligence played a crucial role in planning and providing logistical support for the Green March, which saw 350,000 Moroccans mobilize to claim sovereignty over the Spanish Sahara.

That said, Morocco has not placed all its bets on Washington. It has also expanded its cooperation with Russia, securing agreements in fisheries, oil, grain imports, and civilian nuclear energy.

Spain, on the other hand, is struggling to maintain a coherent foreign policy in the Maghreb, largely due to internal divisions within the government of Pedro Sánchez. In an effort to break its diplomatic isolation, Algeria has reopened dialogue with Madrid—an opportunity Sánchez hopes to use to mend relations with the Spanish business community, which was severely impacted by the 2022 diplomatic crisis.

In the event of a confrontation between Algeria and Spain, the Algerian leadership—Tebboune and Chengriha—would likely find itself in a more vulnerable position. While Algeria could attempt to pressure Spain by shutting down the Medgaz pipeline, which supplies Spanish gas imports, such a move would be financially damaging for Algeria itself. Spain, though affected in the short term, could counterbalance this by increasing gas imports from Norway, Russia, and the U.S., ultimately reducing its dependence on Algeria.

The final key player, France, is unlikely to suffer major losses despite ongoing tensions with Algeria. Both countries remain bound by mutual interests that make a complete breakdown in relations unlikely. Moreover, France holds three critical leverage points over Algeria:

1. Control Over Illicit Investments
   France possesses detailed intelligence on the financial assets and bank accounts of Algeria’s ruling elite within French territory, granting it significant influence.

2. The Controversial Past of Algeria’s Military Leaders
   Paris has access to records revealing that many of Algeria’s top military officials initially served in the French colonial army before switching allegiance to the Algerian independence movement in the 1960s.

3. Classified Colonial Border Archives
   France holds sensitive documents detailing border modifications made during the colonial period—information that directly impacts the territorial claims of both Morocco and Algeria and could challenge the legitimacy of current Maghreb regimes.

Given these dynamics, neither Algeria nor France can afford a full rupture. Despite their ongoing tensions, their relationship is ultimately dictated by pragmatism and shared strategic interests.