By Hichem ABOUD
The visit made by Abdelmadjid Tebboune, President of the Algerian Republic, last June seems to have dealt a fatal blow to Algerian-Russian relations, instead of strengthening them. Despite the exaggerated cordiality shown to him by the Algerian head of state, Vladimir Putin ultimately understood the ambivalence in Algeria’s position, which no longer relies on immutable principles as it did before the arrival of the Tebboune-Chengriha duo at the helm of Algeria. Deception has taken precedence over a diplomacy that has been faltering for some time.
During this visit, the Algerian president displayed his ignorance of basic diplomatic norms. By loudly expressing his desire to leave the euro and dollar zones and excessively praising the Russian president—going so far as to call him “a friend of all humanity” whom everyone loves—the Algerian president irritated the head of the host country, who suspected hypocrisy. That was the end of Algeria’s relations with Russia. Putin is tough. He doesn’t like hypocrisy. He used to know Algerians as people of principle and integrity, but now, like many, he discovers a man who doesn’t resemble the Algerian he knows. The Kremlin leader wasted no time in turning his back on Algeria and extending his hand to Morocco.
Why this sudden Russian reversal against Algeria?
As the Cold War between Russia and the West (United States and Europe) intensifies following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Algiers has struggled to find its position. Obsessed with its Moroccan neighbor, its diplomacy threw all its remaining weight into supporting the Polisario separatist movement, which is now on its last legs, and lost all sense of direction on the major international issues. Sometimes in the arms of the Americans, sometimes in the arms of the Russians, but especially cozying up to the Americans. US political and military officials have been increasingly visiting Algiers lately, with the latter complying with Washington’s warnings without any resistance, much to Moscow’s displeasure.
Algeria’s position on Ukraine has ultimately shifted in favor of Kyiv. However, Washington has already recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara, a recognition that influenced both Spain and France, who followed suit.
Upset with Madrid and Paris for their support of the Sahara autonomy plan, Algiers pretends not to notice Washington’s stance. It’s a policy of double standards. Algerian diplomacy is no longer burdened by principles, as the international community has observed.
Another reason behind the cooling of Russian-Algerian relations is the perceived “betrayal” by Algeria in the Moscow-Kyiv conflict.
Let’s remember that at the end of July, the Malian army, supported by Russian mercenaries from the Africa Corps, formerly Wagner, suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of Tuareg rebels. Ukrainian intelligence claimed that this victory was made possible thanks to their assistance. The Russians suspected Algiers of facilitating Ukrainian intervention in the region, which had serious repercussions on Russian positions in North Africa. It doesn’t take much insight to guess that the Cherifian kingdom would take advantage of this. The growing closeness between Rabat and Moscow started to alarm Algiers, and the worst came to pass, to the dismay of Algerian diplomacy, which no longer knows which way to turn.
Morocco has just announced that it recently signed a “promising” fishing agreement with Russia. This announcement comes after the European Court of Justice’s decision to annul fishing and trade agreements between the EU and the kingdom. According to Europa Press, this agreement with Russia “covers the southern provinces,” reaffirming Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. One can only conclude, without hesitation, that Moscow practically recognizes Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. The official announcement is all that remains.
A Mediation Proposal that Could Blow Up Algerian-Russian Relations
The official recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara by Moscow will undoubtedly come soon. It will happen after Algeria rejects the Russian mediation proposed recently by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to his Algerian and Moroccan counterparts.
After rejecting all mediation proposals, to the point of suffering a stinging setback at the 2022 Arab League summit in Algiers, which was boycotted by all Gulf countries, it is hard to imagine the Algerian regime accepting any peace mediation from any party. The conflict that Algerian generals maintain with Morocco is vital for them—anything but peace with their Moroccan neighbor. And so what if this leads Moscow to dismantle its historical and strategic relations with Algeria? Putin’s first reaction to Tebboune’s rejection of mediation will inevitably be the official recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. It’s in his interest not to let the Americans have free rein in a kingdom where the prospects for significant economic growth are clearly visible. Not to mention the strategic position of a country with two maritime fronts: one on the Mediterranean and the other on the Atlantic. A strategic and economic position that Moroccan leaders handle with great skill and calm.