Morocco, Spain, and France: A Trio for the Future, Self-Excluded by Algeria
By Pedro Canales
Recent developments in the geopolitical situation in the Western Mediterranean (southern Europe and northern Africa) have brought forth a trio of future development formed by France, Morocco, and Spain, from which Algeria has chosen to self-exclude.
The dissolution of the Arab Maghreb Union (created in 1989 by the five North African countries: Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya) and the paralysis of the 5+5 Group (consisting of southern European countries: Italy, Malta, France, Spain, and Portugal, along with the Maghreb countries), both decisions made by the Algerian regime, have left this trio as the only multilateral option for the region’s development.
The Paris-Madrid-Rabat Triangle
This triangle is a historical reference, with other countries like the United States, the UK, Portugal, Germany, and Russia occasionally joining, but the main core has always been France, Spain, and Morocco. Within these countries, some support bilateral competition as a driver of development, while others advocate for triangular multilateralism to face a complex and ever-changing future, given the fast-paced changes in the international geopolitical map.
Points of Convergence
- The Fixed Link across the Strait
The governments of Spain and Morocco have reactivated the project formulated in the 1970s/80s by Alexandre de Marenches, accepted by the kings of Morocco and Spain (Hassan II and Juan Carlos I, respectively). The plan was to associate France with this project, and the Spanish executive confidentially informed French President Emmanuel Macron. - Logistics on the Moroccan Atlantic Coast
This is a vast infrastructure program connecting Tangier to southern Morocco, passing through Casablanca, the port of Agadir, Laayoune, and the hub of Dakhla, before reaching Mauritania, Senegal, and the Gulf of Guinea. - The Multinational Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP)
A 5,600 km (7,000 with branches) project to supply energy to 9 countries, with a potential connection to Spain to bring gas to Europe. The NMGP is one of the flagship initiatives of Morocco’s African strategy. - Unclogging the Sahel and Opening it to the Atlantic
This project aims to allow Sahel countries, such as Mali, Niger, Chad, and Burkina Faso, access to the Atlantic Ocean and benefit from global trade networks.
These points of convergence represent a historic opportunity for the future of the three countries. Emmanuel Macron will carry these points in his upcoming state visit to Morocco as part of an effort to move beyond the remnants of France’s colonial era in Africa and make Morocco a key ally in its new African policy.
France and Spain: Partners and Competitors
France holds comparative advantages over Spain: its military, financial, and industrial capacity, and a coherent foreign policy. This has allowed France, among other things, to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara, open an office of the French Development Agency (AFD) in Laayoune, and likely two consulates, one in Laayoune and another in Dakhla.
Spain, on the other hand, lacks the same strength, and its government is divided on foreign policy issues, including Morocco. Spain has not opened an ICO office in Laayoune and cannot publicly recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.
However, Spain has two advantages:
- The Canary Islands Archipelago, a true Spanish aircraft carrier in the Atlantic, close to the Moroccan coast, with great potential for the economy, trade, and communications.
- Ceuta, Melilla, and the Mediterranean Rocks, which can be transformed from problems into opportunities to strengthen Spanish-Moroccan, and thus Euro-African, relations. France does not have land or sovereignty close to Morocco, unlike Spain.
